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CONFESSIONS OF A REAL ESTATE JUNKIE/TOP 5 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2011

Like many of us in this business I have been awe struck by the rate of decline in almost everything related to the housing industry over the last three years; existing homes sold, new homes built and purchased, mortgages sold, real estate agent commissions and of course the one that most directly impacts me and my business, the significant drop in advertising and marketing spend.  If this is any consolation,  books will be written (some already have been) about this period in time and we’ll all be able to say we witnessed it first hand.

There are plenty of people better qualified than I to predict how the 2011 American housing market will play out, so I won’t try to second guess them. Their forecasts range from more of the same (4.8M to 5.0M existing homes sold) to slightly more aggressive numbers, closer to 5.5M existing homes sold. The consensus is the recovery in housing will be tepid in 2011.

But there is less consensus around real estate marketing media trends for 2011 and so I’d like to further that discussion with my own predictions for the Top 5 Media Trends we’ll see develop in the coming year.

Top 5 MEDIA TRENDS FOR 2011

1. Common sense will return to the media market. Top Agents and Brokers recognizing that real estate always has been and always will be a hyper-local business, will stop following the larger crowd and decide instead to find ways to stand out from the crowd in  their very specific, very local market.

2. Local housing guides, especially color catalogs integrated with an online offering.  like The Real Estate Book and its companion website http://www.realestatebook.com  and other well executed products, will regain favor due to their hyper local characteristics and their ability to attract buyers and influence  prospective sellers to list their home with a market leader.

3.  Internet marketing will change radically. The idea that simply posting listings on large national sites is innovative marketing and that “if we post they will come” will be replaced with a smarter approach, better leveraging the real power of the internet.  Large sites today like Realtor.com and other popular sites like Zillow.com and Trulia.com get anywhere from 5 to 10 million unique users every month, which is amazing considering the lackluster pace of home sales this year, but lead generation from those users is low at between 1 and 2% of traffic. These sites can be a great research tool, but for whatever reason the medium just doesn’t engage people to take action, like send an email or make a phone call, to the same degree other mediums offer.

4.  Content marketing solutions, like http://www.brokersherpa.com  where Agents and Brokers are able to leverage their existing digital assets, like listing data mentioned above and  integrate it in a more meaningful way to intersect and engage with buyers and sellers as they are online searching in any of the major search engines or social media sites, will be a major trend for 2011.

5. Cost and return on investment will continue to be major drivers to media and marketing decisions as the housing market recovers, but at a slow pace in 2011. Commission dollars will still be tight and very precious. Every decision should have a measurable and productive outcome and top Agents and brokers will insist that the vendors they choose to work with can back up their claims with concrete results and reporting.

That’s my list for Top 5 MEDIA TRENDS for 2011. I”d love to hear your thoughts and invite you to  let me know if you agree and if not, how you might modify the list.

 

Happy New Year!

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Confessions of a Real Estate Junkie/Data Feed Landscape

With the recent acquisition of ListHuB by Move, Inc, the possibility and in fact likelihood that the landscape for moving real estate listing content around the Internet will change is very real.  Sami Inkinen C0-Founder and COO of  Trulia.com recently blogged about this topic and made some very clarifying observations. I agree with his observations about the risk associated with the data syndicator now having another, larger agenda.

Interestingly, he went on to talk about how this might accelerate the movement of marketing dollars from offline to online. I don’t see that, as fifteen years into the Internet revolution for real estate marketing, the relative value and inherent qualities of offline media and online media for keeping the  Agent and Broker front and center in home seller’s and home buyer’smind is quite clear. I have posted Sami’s original blog post and then my comment so you can see the larger discussion in more complete context.

My comment:

Sami makes some very valid points. Consolidating any part of a market into too few hands increases costs and discourages innovation as the leader has a lot to lose by introducing better and less expensive solutions.

But I part ways when Sami concludes this will further accelerate the offline to online movement due to the inefficiency of offline. Not sure I get that.

Leads from hyper local real estate magazines, like The Real Estate Book and others, far outweigh (4 to 1) leads from a online only sources. This is not only true in traditional single family home sales, but also in the apartment world. Pick up a copy of a local rental magazine in your market, like the Apartment Finder, for example. In major cities these magazines are 400 or more pages in spite of the audience being young and very comfortable with technology. Why hasn’t this business migrated completely online? Because these property owners faithfully track their leads and put their money where it gets them the maximum return. They do online too, it’s just not powerful enough on its own.

NAR research indicates the median move in 2009 between original home and new home was 12 miles, supporting the hyper local nature of real estate once again. Local home shoppers use the magazines to see which Agents have homes listed that look and are priced like theirs and to contact Agents that are still in the game. Online is very valuable, no question, as it allows the shopper to go deeper, but print interrupts the shopper in a good way and a way that online only hasn’t been able to replicate.

It’s my belief that the movement from offline to online has been driven more by the scarcity of marketing dollars available as total commissions have dropped 45% from peak, than by the effectiveness of online only advertising. Research shows that for every ten listings online, 1 to 2 leads will be generated each month. Not bad if it’s free, but certainly not enough to sustain a serious Agent who is working hard to keep their home seller happy.

Below, I’ve copied the content of Sami’s blog post dated September 21/Move on ListHub-Is American Airlines now going to sell fuel to JetBlue, Virgin America and United? 

By now we have all read the news that Threewide Corporation, the creators of the third party listing syndication platform ListHub, has been acquired by Move Inc, which operates Realtor.com, the official website of the National Association of Realtors.

ListHub sits in between the originators and owners of listings – MLSes and brokers – and online real estate sites like Trulia. ListHub became known as the unbiased and impartial third party to both syndicate listings cost efficiently and provide fair and accurate performance statistics to the listing owners. Consequently, whether you are a franchise, broker, MLS, or real estate agent it’s likely that you or one of your close friends use ListHub to syndicate your listings or use their aggregated performance reports.  And if you operate a real estate listing site of any significance it’s likely that ListHub provides a portion of your listings on behalf of your partner brokers and MLSes. 

In short, most of us – if not all – in the real estate ecosystem are either directly or indirectly affected by the change of ownership at ListHub. As co-founder of Trulia and long time partner of ListHub, I would like to share some thoughts and more importantly, start a conversation with our industry partners. 

Here are a few of our candid observations about how this change could impact all of us:

The Exciting

  • Listing syndication becomes even more mainstream and encourages all brokers and agents to consider the benefits of listing syndication to sites like Trulia. Given Move, Inc’s existing MLS and broker relationships, Move and ListHub together could quickly increase ListHub’s reach.  This would bring services to more agents and brokers across the country, which would also give the consumer a better experience on the listing sites.
  • Further accelerates the shift of inefficient offline marketing to online in real estate. Move.com is likely to be incentivized to promote the value of listing advertising investment online vs. inefficient spending offline which could help all real estate websites as well as the marketers themselves, agents and brokers.
  • Force all online real estate sites to deliver true value, objectively measured.  This acquisition could force all online real estate sites to deliver real quantifiable value if they maintain the integrity of the syndication and reporting platform that compares sites apples to apples. This would spur innovation and creativity among different sites.

The Concerning

  • Pricing power aggregated into fewer hands means bigger bills. Move, Inc could use this power and data to help Realtor.com extract more money from the industry without having much alternative: pay and syndicate – or die.  
  • Potential lack of objectivity in performance measurements. Nielsen is an independent, unbiased third party for a good reason. TV Channels and advertisers like that. The previously independent ListHub platform (some called it the Switzerland of listing syndication) for listing reporting is now owned by one of the largest “channels”. What happens if there’s a dip in performance and Realtor.com’s numbers drop below those of its competitor sites?
  • It is difficult to imagine a world where JetBlue and Virgin America would be buying fuel from American Airlines in a fair and independent marketplace where American Airlines has full visibility into the demand from their competitors. Listhub owned by Move Inc, essentially creates this situation.

Since Trulia’s launch five years ago, we’ve built our business by trying to find the best possible solutions for the industry and consumers.  So consider this proposal — one way to ensure the ongoing independence of the Listhub service is to create a committee made up of brokers, MLSs and major online real estate listing sites which will provide accountability to all customers they serve. This would help ensure accountability of the merged entity, and directly address “the concerning” factors from my list above. 

What is your opinion?  How would you ensure that the market remains open for innovation and a great experience for both industry and consumers? 

We look forward to hearing from you.

Cheers,
Sami Inkinen, Trulia

Questions?  Comments?

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CONFESSIONS OF A REAL ESTATE JUNKIE/BLUE STONE

img00152Ive been meaning to write this post for a while now, but for whatever the reason the spirit has moved me to do so today. Maybe because it’s too hot to even go outside. This post is not about buying or selling a home, but instead, about improving it.

A few years back, when my business was doing better, I installed, or I should say contracted out for, a blue stone walkway leading from my driveway to the front door. It’s about fifty feet in length, generous in width, curves and widens further as it approaches the front door. In my eyes, it’s a thing of beauty. Of all the home improvement projects I have done over the years, this one has unquestionably given me the most joy.

I live in Atlanta where the preferred hard scape material seems to be river stone. Now river stone is beautiful, with its shades of brown, light and dark, but it’s not blue, and it’s not what I was looking for. There is a local outfit here called Pike Nurseries and they have a special division just devoted to stone. I went there and selected my Pennsylvania bluestone  from stacks and stacks of the stuff. Quality, color variation and thickness were all important considerations. The people at Pike connected me with a local stone mason named Alex and they spoke very highly of his work. Local is a relative term, as Alex is originally from Scotland, and once we got past a few dialect issues, we were off and running.

The previous walkway was a simple concrete one installed by the builder when the house was built in 1990. I was thinking that Alex could install the blue stone over the existing concrete base.  However he said the rise to the front step would be too low, and the walkway would not transition properly to the driveway, so the existing walk had to be taken out completely and a new base installed several inches lower than the original. Big job and messy too.

I grew up outside of Boston and saw many fine examples of blue stone patios, covered porches, pool surrounds and even indoor installations. There was something about the organization of the stone, the large squares intermixed with rectangles, the shades of blue and gray, and the thickness of the stone that caught my eye and my passion. It was classic and conveyed, at least in my minds eye a sense of quality and permanence that had the rare ability to improve the looks of everything around it. This feeling has stayed with me all these years.

Whether the blue stone walkway will translate into a good return on my investment when I eventually go to sell my home remains to be seen, but it really doesn’t matter. The joy and satisfaction it has brought me everyday was worth every penny.

Maybe you’re a fan of blue stone too. If so, I’d love to hear your story.

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